Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution ofgroundwater and surface waters
Ralf Kunkel , Peter Kreins , Bj¨orn Tetzla , Frank Wendland
DOI:
Received October 29, 2009,Revised January 05, 2010, Accepted , Available online
Volume 22,2010,Pages 872-877
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We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at
the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the
agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the
nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU)
groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented
to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by
a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects
of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs
for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of
measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union
in the Weser basin.
